Will North Korea become a bigger problem for Japan?
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7zT8lKweG00[/youtube]Now that Kim Jong-il is dead, will North Korea become a bigger problem for Japan? Will Kim's death lead to Japan pushing for "further" militarization? How will the pro-DPRK Korean resident's of Japan react to the leadership change and potential leadership vacuum in the DPRK? I will need to examine each of these questions more closely but in the meantime, check out some previous and current posting on North Korea below.
[Via the BBC] "So what will happen? The rest of us can only watch and wait. Will Kim Jong-un succeed as successor? At best he can be little more than a figurehead - but for whom and what, exactly?North Korea runs a famously tight ship and is adept at putting on a good show. But behind the mask of unity lurk bitter rivalries and tough choices. These are of at least four kinds.First, personalities. Kim Jong-un's elder half-brother Kim Jong-nam was passed over for the succession. He lives in China, which means he has Beijing's protection.In case Jong-un is not up to the job, his big brother - a known reformer - might yet have a role to play. And in Pyongyang itself there are further personal and family rivalries, though details are murky.Second, there are institutional rivalries. Three bureaucracies - the Party (WPK), the military (KPA) and the Cabinet - vie for power, and may not see eye to eye on how to proceed.Under Kim Jong-il, the Party had largely withered while the KPA flourished, until last year's public launch of Kim Jong-un at the first WPK delegates' meeting for more than 40 years.Less powerful than either the party or army, technocrats in the Cabinet yearn for economic reform to arrest North Korea's decline into poverty. This is the third issue: policy choices.Patently North Korea is on the road to nowhere, refusing reform and in its nuclear defiance. Yet there is no guarantee that it will change on either front, due to military vested interests.Or a mix is possible: partial market reform while clinging to nuclear weapons. China could live with that. But for South Korea, the US and Japan, this would create dilemmas.Which brings us to the fourth dimension. How will political succession in North Korea play out in regard to other powers, above all South Korea, China, the US and Japan?As ever the main US concern is nuclear. With Kim Jong-il gone, whose finger will now be on North Korea's red button? Might they be trigger-happy or nervously miscalculate?In that case artillery or missile launches are likelier, thankfully. A third nuclear test cannot be ruled out, just to warn the West not to meddle as they did in Libya.The nightmare scenario is "loose nukes" if an overt power struggle were to break out in Pyongyang. In that case, South Korea and its US ally have contingency plans to intervene.But so does China - separately. The nightmare of nightmares would be if an already fraught political transition were to escalate into a confrontation between rival superpowers."
Click here for more of the above analysis.So the question remains, Is Kim Jong-un ready to lead North Korea? Click here for one answer to that question and here to view one analysis that he is not ready to lead his nation into better conditions and standing within the international community.[ad]Here is a previous BT post on How to Prepare for the Collapse of North Korea. You can read the Brookings North Korea Collaspe Scenarios here. Portions of the analysis is shown below:
A concept of operationsThe United States must be prepared to play a major and direct role in dealing with the effects of a collapse, should one occur. It may be somewhat natural to believe that North Korea collapse scenarios make the relative South Korean role larger than that of the United States. But this is a dangerous assumption and the U.S. must coordinate carefully – in advance – with South Korea, China, and other players to develop a basic concept of operations which should include three major missions:Locating and securing nuclear materials: loose North Korean nuclear materials and/or weapons would be a nightmare for American security, immediately raising the urgency of this mission above that of the current Iraq and Afghanistan efforts. Locating these materials will be extremely difficult, as outsiders (and most insiders) have an imprecise idea of how many, and little to no idea of where nuclear materials and actual devices may be. This mission could be quite distinct in many ways from other aspects of the effort.Restoring order and possibly combating remnants of the DPRK military: combined ROK-U.S. forces would need to be able to end a state of anarchy that is likely to exist if the state collapses. They would need to defeat any splinter elements (or even substantial elements) of the DPRK armed forces that were posing local resistance or attacking South Korean territory with long-range strike assets. They would also have to arrest top-level North Korean leadership unless an amnesty had been negotiated.Providing basic goods and services: the North Korean people, including large numbers of refugees and internally displaced persons, will require food, medical care, and shelter. It is essential that services be delivered as quickly as possible, both on principle and to help ease possible opposition to the presence of foreign forces.
[ad]Click here for a harrowing look on life inside the DPRK.For an excellent look into the life of a DPRK refugee, the DPRK's disastrous currency revaluation and more on the Hermit Kingdom, click here.For additional articles on the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea:
The FutureThe Rise of Kim Jong-Un - Ken E. Gause, Foreign Policy"What would the post-Kim Jong Il era mean for the stability of North Korea? Although few experts foresee a collapse of the regime, many wonder whether the senior leadership will hold together or fall prey to factionalism. Jang's agreement to support Kim Jong-un apparently unifies the key individuals within the regime. For this reason, many Pyongyang watchers think the succession is already a done deal.North Korea’s ‘Dear Young General’ Has Made His Mark - Choe Sang-Hun, The New York Times"It is a telling sign of who is the rising star in North Korea: state-run television showing octogenarian party secretaries bowing to a man their grandchildren’s age before accepting the smiling man’s handshake or kowtowing to his instructions."Kim Jong Il Is Dead; What's Next for North Korea? - J.J. Gould, The Atlantic"Three years ago, in the fall of 2008, after reports emerged that Kim might recently have suffered a stroke, Atlantic contributing editor B.R. Myers weighed in amid the cresting global speculation on what will happen in North Korea after its Dear Leader's eventual death."
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