Obama's "Japan Nothing" Policy Course
On Election Day in the United States, several hundred people, including American diplomats, scholars, journalists, and government officials, gathered at the U.S. Embassy in Tokyo's Toranomon district to watch CNN's live coverage of the election results on the large screen.
An American woman shed tears as she watched Barack Obama declare victory in the battle to become the president of the United States on January 20. A Japanese Foreign Ministry official said bewilderedly: "This is not necessarily good for Japan."
The reason the official was worried is because the Foreign Ministry's North American Affairs Bureau has been under the gun to revamp the country's U.S. policy since September, when Obama's lead became clear. The first difficult challenge for Japan will be to dispatch Self-Defense Forces (SDF) troops to Afghanistan.
Obama has been calling for an early withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. At the same time, he has taken a proactive attitude toward pursuing the war on terror in Afghanistan, calling for additional troops to be sent to that country to find a way out from the quagmire-like situation there.
Japan has been engaged only in the refueling mission in the Indian Ocean as the main part of its assistance to Afghanistan. The Obama administration may ask Japan for additional contributions.A senior North American Affairs Bureau official noted:
"There is a high likelihood that the Obama administration will Japan ask to dispatch ground troops to Afghanistan. Before the Lake Toya summit, the Bush administration, too, requested then-Prime Minister Fukuda to send a Ground Self-Defense Force helicopter unit. Japan rejected the idea through diplomatic channels after sending a fact-finding team to the country. The team judged the situation in Afghanistan was even more unstable than in Iraq. How to deal with the matter is difficult because the government cannot easily change its policy with the changeover of the U.S. President."
What is also bothering the Foreign Ministry is the strong criticism in the U.S. Democratic Party about Japan's colonial rule before the war.
In July 2007, the U.S. House passed a resolution seeking the Japanese government's apology for the comfort women issue, submitted by Democratic lawmakers and others. (Then) House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Tom Lantos (of the Democratic Party) said: "Japan’s refusal to apologize formally is disturbing to all who value relations between the United States and Japan."
A Japanese delegate, including LDP lawmakers and Foreign Ministry officials, visited the United States and futilely attempted to prevent the House from adopting the resolution. The aforementioned North American Affairs Bureau official added: "The U.S. Democratic Party is alarmed, regarding hawkish Prime Minister Aso as a nationalist. The prime minister quickly decided to dismiss Toshio Tamogami from the post of Air Self-Defense Force chief of staff over his essay in consideration of a possible reaction of the Democratic Obama administration which would be sensitive to the question of Japan's wartime responsibility."
Obama's inauguration as President of the United States seems to be disturbing to the inner circles of the government, including the Foreign Ministry.
10-member Japan team, 20-member China team
During a visit to the United States by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Obama delivered a speech before the Senate in which he described the U.S.-Japan alliance as one of the great successes of the postwar era and called Japan one of America's closest allies.
But that could have been out of politeness. Under the Obama administration, the United States might prioritize China and ignore Japan.
Vice President-elect Joe Biden, who appeared with Obama on the stage to also declare victory, is regarded as a dyed-in-the-wool pro-China legislator in U.S. political circles. The incoming administration is likely to draft a diplomatic strategy under the initiative of Biden.
Kazuyuki Hamada, an international politics and economics scholar who is well-versed in U.S. political circles, explained: "By launching a Japan team and a China team, the Obama camp has been formulating an Asia strategy over the past two years. The Japan team consists of some 10 members, including former Boeing Japan President Robert Orr. In contrast, the China team consists of some 20 members centering on the Brookings Institution's Richard Bush, a foremost expert on China.
A former senior U.S. government official who served as a go-between with Japan under the Republican administration predicted: "Under the Obama administration, the United States will shift the axle of its Asia diplomacy from the Japan-U.S. alliance to China."
A former senior U.S. Defense Department official took this view on the day Obama declared victory: "Many of Mr. Obama's foreign and defense staff think only of China. In his Asia policy, China might play a central role and Japan a supporting role."
Former National Security Council Asian Affairs Director Michael Green said: "How to deal with the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea would be a litmus test to determine the incoming administration's stance toward Japan." Obama, who welcomed the U.S. government's decision to delist North Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism, does not show any signs of applying strong pressure on the North. This can easily be explained by his consideration to China which wants to bring the North Korean issue to a soft landing.
What cannot be overlooked in projecting Obama's Asia policy is his contribution to the Foreign Affairs July 2007 issue. It reads: "We need a more effective framework in Northeast Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements, occasional summits, and ad hoc arrangements, such as the six-party talks on North Korea."
Washington-based international affairs analyst Yoshihisa Komori (Editor-at-Large for the Sankei Shimbun) is concerned that the Obama administration might carry out a review the Japan-U.S. alliance, which is the backbone of Japan's security policy. Komori said:
"Reading Mr. Obama's article, I felt that he would disregard Japan – the so-called 'Japan nothing' syndrome – for he wants to build a multilateral security framework like an Asian-version NATO led by the United States and China that would reject the Japan-U.S. alliance. The Japan-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone of the security system in Asia, and the Obama administration's pursuit of his own vision would weaken Japan's presence, raising serious diplomatic concerns."
The solid teamwork between Japan and the United States is the backbone ensuring Japan's voice in the international community, including the military front. Should that collapse and U.S.-China teamwork become the new cornerstone, Japan would naturally lose the diplomatic backing that makes it able to countering China's pressure in its own bilateral relations with that country. Japan might end up having to kowtow to China.
Engagement policy
This magazine interviewed Vice President-elect Biden's assistant Frank Jannuzi, who sits at the center of the Obama administration's Asia policy. Jannuzi emphasized that the incoming administration would place high priority on economic relations with China, saying: "Do you know how much China has invested in America? Actually, it has invested 400 billion dollars in two government-affiliated mortgage banks. The current financial crisis cannot be resolved without China. Obama therefore is trying to push ahead with an engagement policy toward China."
Finance is not the only area in which the United States has shifted toward China. Supported by labor unions, the Democratic Party tends to make extra efforts to protect domestic industries. During the Clinton administration, Japan-U.S. trade disputes occurred over autos, semiconductors, steel and other products.
In his campaign speeches, Obama criticized trade with Japan, saying, "Japanese people have not imported enough automobiles," and "You can’t get beef into Japan, even though, obviously, we have the highest safety standards."
Hamada thinks Obama's tilt toward China in the security and the economic areas runs the risk of coming up with tough demands toward Japan. Hamada predicted: "Expectations of Japan would not stop with pressure on it to buy beef and cars. The [Obama administration] would, for instance, ask for Japan to dispatch troops to Afghanistan and make a greater financial contribution to the war on terror. A failure to comply with its requests could very well result in 'economic sanctions' like the boycott of Japanese products in the past."
Japan should not be engulfed in pessimism. Foreign affairs journalist Ryuichi Teshima noted: "The United States is saddled with many challenges, such as its current financial turmoil, none of which can be overcome independently. At a time like this, Japan should tell the U.S.: 'If you ignore Japan, you cannot resolve anything."
Japan's reserve strength will soon be tested.
Source: SHUKAN POSUTO (Weekly Post)
